October 3, 2016
Blinn College is inviting students and the community to discover the next president of the United States almost a month in advance of the presidential election.
Political science professors Dr. Jon Taylor and Dr. Jean-Philipe Faletta from the University of St. Thomas will demonstrate their election prediction model and explain what makes this year’s election unique in their presentation titled, “Toss Out the Playbook? Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election.” The presentation will begin at 3 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 10, at the Janis Sneed Banquet Room in the Blinn-Brenham Student Center (map).
Taylor and Faletta have visited Blinn College for more than a decade, providing students and campus visitors an inside look at how predictive models are used to forecast presidential and other political elections.
“Each year, they present their research and describe the factors that are included in their presidential election prediction model, and explain why they anticipate a certain candidate will win,” said Mary Barnes-Tilley, Blinn’s Assistant Dean of Social Sciences. “Each time they come to Blinn, their predictions turn out to be correct.”
Taylor teaches public administration, public policy, and statistics and quantitative methodology at St. Thomas, where he has been the department of political science chair since 2003 and an associate professor since 1998. This is his sixth appearance at Blinn’s Brenham campus.
Faletta has taught American political institutions, American political processes, political methodology, and Russian government and politics at St. Thomas since 2006.
Faletta and Thomas are noted experts on campaigns, elections, and politics, and have written numerous articles on the science of election forecasting.
They have been predicting election results since 2004, including predictive models for the Texas gubernatorial race since 2006, Congressional elections since 2008, and the Houston mayoral election since 2009. They began constructing their presidential election model during the 2000 election, and it has accurately predicted the results of each presidential election since 1952 within 0.58 percent.
“This is an especially interesting election year and the community certainly will be interested in the outcome,” Barnes-Tilley said. “There is a passion in this presidential election that we haven’t seen in a long time, with strong opinions of the two major party candidates.”