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October 11, 2012

And the next president will be …

Experts to predict election results, explain methodology on Blinn’s Brenham campus

Everyone has an opinion on the upcoming presidential election. But Dr. Jean-Philippe Faletta and Dr. Jon Taylor of the University of St. Thomas have actually crunched the numbers.

The two will present “Everything you Know is Wrong or Double Your Money Back: Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election” from 12:30-1:30 p.m. Monday at the Dr. W.W. O’Donnell Performing Arts Center on Blinn College’s Brenham campus (map). The event is open to the public and admission is free.

Faletta and Taylor will explain the data that goes into their forecasting model and how that information predicts election results. They plan to demonstrate how such data will impact this year’s presidential election. Faletta, an associate professor of political science at St. Thomas, and Taylor, St. Thomas’ political science chair, are noted experts on campaigns, elections and politics and have written numerous articles on the science of election forecasting.

They have been predicting election results since 2004, including predictive models for the Texas gubernatorial race since 2006, Congressional elections since 2008 and the Houston mayoral election since 2009. They began constructing the current presidential election model during the 2000 election, and their forecasting model has accurately predicted the results of each presidential election since 1952 within 0.58 percent.

“We’re very excited to have Dr. Faletta and Dr. Taylor on our campus,” said Dr. Mary Barnes-Tilley, the social sciences chair on Blinn’s Brenham campus. “Both men are nationally-recognized experts on the Electoral College and why individuals vote the way they do. This presentation will give all of us a better insight into our electoral process and who the next president of the United States will be.”

Taylor teaches public administration, public policy and statistics and quantitative methodology at St. Thomas, where he has been the department of political science chair since 2003 and an associate professor since 1998. This is his fourth appearance at Blinn as part of the College’s Distinguished Lecture Series.

Faletta has taught American political institutions, American political processes, political methodology and Russian government and politics at St. Thomas since 2006.